South China Sea clash raises fears of full-blown conflict

Tensions between China and the Philippines are running high after a recent violent clash between Chinese coast guard personnel and Filipino troops in the crucial waterway.

Tensions between China and the Philippines escalated rapidly following a violent clash last week between their sailors in the South China Sea (SCS).

Videos published by the Philippine military showed Chinese Coast Guard personnel ramming and boarding Philippine naval boats and confiscating their weapons.

Philippine officials claimed the Chinese borders were armed with swords, spears and knives. They said several Filipinos were injured in the incident, including one sailor who lost his thumb.

While Manila described the Chinese as behaving like "pirates," Beijing justified its actions by claiming the Chinese side simply took "necessary measures" such as interceptions and boarding inspections to safeguard the country's sovereignty in a "professional and restrained" manner.

The clash was the latest in a series of escalating confrontations between Chinese and Philippine vessels in recent monthsoff the disputed Second Thomas Shoal, where a tiny Philippine garrison is stationed on an old warship BRP Sierra Madre that was deliberately beached.

The Philippine boats were on a resupply mission last week when they were attacked by the Chinese Coast Guard.

Latest clash 'concerning'

Analysts have found the latest skirmish especially "concerning" as any accident involving severe injuries has an increased chance of escalating into a situation where both sides find it difficult to back down.

Bonnie Glaser, managing director of the Indo-Pacific Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, told DW that "it isn't difficult to envision a scenario in which someone is accidentally killed" — given the current tensions in the region. 

"The risk of an accident that escalates to conflict is high," she said.

China and the Philippines have been locked in a years-long dispute in the SCS.

Beijing claims almost the entire waterway with its so-called nine-dash line, which overlaps the exclusive economic zones of rival claimants Brunei, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan and Vietnam.

The Philippines uses the West Philippine Sea name for the portion of the SCS that it claims.

In 2016, an international tribunal in The Hague ruled in favor of the Philippines and invalidated China's claim in the strategic waters.

But Beijing refused to accept the ruling.

China's 'risky strategy' of provoking the US ally

China has also become more assertive in its maritime territorial claims, leading to multiple clashes where Philippine ships have been damaged and Filipino sailors injured by water cannons over the past year.

In response, Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has sought closer ties with the United States.Manila signed a mutual defense treaty (MDT) with the US in 1951. The pact commits both sides to help defend each other if either were attacked by a third party.

"China is increasingly interested in pushing the Philippines-US alliance to its limit,"

Don McLain Gill, a Manila-based geopolitical analyst and lecturer at De La Salle University, told DW.

Following the recent clash, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke to his Philippine counterpart and once again underscored Washington's "ironclad commitments" to its ally under the treaty.

But Gill said more US action is needed in the region. 

"If left unchecked, it is likely that Beijing will push the Philippines further," he noted, adding that China's purpose is to show that the alliance formed by Manila and Washington is "unable to act" despite their political statements.

Glaser said Beijing is deliberately trying to "bully" Manila and "compel it [to] return to talks with China."

But this strategy is "risky," the expert stressed, as the Philippine leader has recently lowered the bar for invoking the defense treaty with the US.