Koike eases to victory but Ishimaru's performance signals shift in Tokyo

Tokyo Gov. Yuriko Koike ultimately secured a mostly comfortably victory in the capital's gubernatorial election Sunday, securing for herself a third term, but analysts see changes ahead in future votes given the surprisingly strong performance of Shinji Ishimaru, who came in second.

Garnering nearly 3 million votes, or 42.8% of the overall turnout, the 71-year-old incumbent beat 55 other candidates in the contest, which had the largest number of contenders in history.

“The Children First policies that I have worked on until now, as well as efforts to secure more human resources for nursing care with aging of the population set to become even more prominent next year in 2025 — these have been well received by many,” Koike told reporters at the Tokyo Metropolitan Government Building on Monday. “I feel that I have been entrusted with the responsibility to further answer to these expectations.”

Running under the banner of “Tokyo Reform 3.0,” she promised the capital that she would continue to work to defend Tokyoites from rising prices and threats like natural disasters, as well as further advance child-rearing policies such as free nursery care, during her next four years in office.

But her victory, although expected, was not completely plain sailing, having had to face off with some of the strongest challengers she has ever seen. Her percentage of votes is her lowest so far — in 2020, she secured 59.7% of the ballot, while in 2016 she won 44.49%.

“Overall I think it was an easy victory (for Koike), one of the easiest compared to other incumbents who ran for a third term in the past,” said political scientist Yasushi Aoyama, a former Tokyo vice governor, who noted the large gap between her and Ishimaru. An 18.5-percentage-point difference separated the two, while the difference between Koike and third-placed Renho was 24 percentage points.

“That said, I do think she is taking to heart that there was only around 43% of the turnout for her — it's important for her that she accepts that fact with humility and engages in metropolitan governance without getting cocky,” Aoyama said.

The election's big surprise was how well Ishimaru, the former mayor of Akitakata in Hiroshima Prefecture, fared in the race despite not having as much name recognition as Renho, who was thought to be Koike's primary challenger.

“The fact that someone like Ishimaru wedged himself into second place has changed the gubernatorial election forever,” Aoyama added. “Everyone said that in a governor race as big as Tokyo’s with over 11.5 million voters, someone with no name recognition has no chance — but Ishimaru has completely turned that assumption on its head, and even without name recognition managed to come in second place solely through his policies and campaign method.”

Aoyama added that Ishimaru’s strong performance was most likely due to the fact that he had a simple and targeted one-issue campaign focused on advancing the Tokyo economy and innovation in the capital, which he was able to successfully communicate to voters through a mix of street and online campaigning that has never been done before.

This was especially effective given that Renho had not set out concrete and specific campaign promises, something that one would expect from the primary challenger.

In fact, according to exit polls by multiple news organizations such as NHK, Ishimaru actually ranked first over Koike among voters unaffiliated with a political party as well as those under the age of 30, showing that his tight messaging was able to mobilize young Tokyoites and those who are typically not as interested in politics.

“The voter turnout was very high in this election at over 60% and I think Ishimaru deserves credit for that,” Aoyama added. “It's an impressive accomplishment that he got people to the polls who normally wouldn't have voted in the gubernatorial election.”