India's urbanization likely to be 60% in 3 decades: Panagariya

NEW DELHI: India's urbanization may double to over 60 per cent in 30 years assuming that economic growth remains at 7-9 per cent level, Niti Aayog vice-chairman Arvind Panagariya said on Wednesday. "Generally, the level of urbanization is over 60 per cent in developed economies. It will take time for India to achieve that level. Within two to three decades India's urbanization should be 60 per cent. But that would require 7-9 per cent economic growth," Panagariya said at the inauguration a 2-day urban management programme.

The process of urbanization in the country may accelerate as it has touched the threshold of 30-35 per cent urban population, he added. He said: "The chances of acceleration in urbanisation are greater when urban population crosses the threshold of 30-35 per cent. The empirical evidence suggests that once the threshold of 30-35 per cent (urbanization) is crossed then the process of urbanization accelerates." About India's slow growth of urbanization, which was 31.16 per cent as per the 2011 Census, he said: "Our process of urbanization has been slow. When we started in 1951, urban population was just 17 per cent. Thus the urbanization increased by 2 per cent per decade so far. This happens because of lower base." He was of the view that the individuals and household take this decision to move to urban areas, but the government has to create opportunities for them.

Panagariya said urbanization is not just migration of rural population to urban areas as it also includes development of adjoining towns to cities and improvement in the quality of basic amenities in rural areas. Aayog Member Bibek Debroy suggested that government should create local bodies officers cadre to meet the specific management needs of municipalities.